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Newsletter Archives
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- We know we mentioned that we would have another stock pick tonite, but after further analysis of screener results and the market weakness Friday, we think waiting 1 to a few more days is in order. Potential for more pullbacks.
- We will however keep our three stock picks open as there at least the possibility to pick up some of them.
- Many earnings disappointments drove the decline Friday. One mega-company, Caterpiller, was a huge disappointment. Schlumberger, a mega-oil services company is in a declining price environments, and 3M was down due to declining LCD TV sales. I could go on and on, but we had some huge company disappointments converge all at once. Yet another sign we have been in recession for months. Not all sectors are in a recession. Tech and Tech hiring is very strong.
- With the market down 367 points it was nice to see a couple of our positions up (GOOG and NYX).
- You will notice that we adjusted our model portfolio to a higher value to be more in line with our subscriber base investment profile. We also corrected a couple of mistakes in the math.
- We extremely outperformed the S&P 500 Friday. Nice to see that.
- Over the next 2 to 3 weeks we hope to get some amazing buying opportunities. This is just what we were waiting for. The best thing to do is to check the newsletter frequently. We may also do the very rare action of sending out open orders intraday, so be alert.
- The interesting thing is that other world economies such as UK, Russia, and China are not in a recession and GDP growth and cash reserves are extremely strong. Just a matter of time before the globalization pendulum swings back to USA.
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- Just the kind of day we like for the portfolio of stock picks. S&P goes down and we go up. Nice.
- GOOG went way up in post market, before trading stopped it closed up another $3.88 after close. Google should be really active tomorrow.
- Pfizer's earnings were weighted down by the Exubera charge, but still beat views. Now that Exubera is past for Pfizer we should start to see the stock get traction and track higher.
- Oil, what else can I say?
- Housing, what else can I say?
- Credit markets what else can I say?
- Well, a lot actually....and I will, until it is over. Housing and Credit markets will subside. Oil is very complicated.
- Parts of California home sales are at a 20 year low. 20 years! Unprecedented.
- We have stated that we were entering a recession since June. We are starting to see analysts and articles that are agreeing with us. We expect this to be past us end of 2008, so until then we will continue to use our screener and methods to outperform! Stay tuned and read everyday.
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- Wow. Where do I start. How about with oil? $89 per barrel high today. Not good. Not good. How is the general market missing what this could do to the economy? We only hope this is temporary. The fair price for oil is around $55 to $65 by our calculations. The falling dollar is not helping btw.
- The good news? Our portfolio is doing well compared to the general market. This is exactly how we structured it.
- ETFC and a host of other stocks missed earnings. The bad part is they missed earnings guidance they had recently gave lower. In Etrade's case, it was moving to a quarterly loss.
- Here are some earnings rundowns for our portfolio
- CTSH stock picks -- Early November
- Google stock picks -- tomorrow, after close
- Mylan Labs stock picks -- Early November, probably 11/7/2007
- Toyota stock picks -- Early November, probably 11/7/2007
- Ensco stock picks -- 10/25/2007, before open
- NYX stock picks -- 11/2/2007, before open
- Pfizer stock picks -- tomorrow, before open
- Apple stock picks -- 10/22/2007, after close
- Tomorrow is a big day for the portfolio of stock picks from two points of view. First, Pfizer and Google are reporting. Second, Google is reporting and it can lead the market one way or the other. Stay tuned!
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- Our Google position stock pick filled perfectly early in the market morning. We should hit 700 soon. This is one of our long term core positions.
- Our Toyota averaged down perfectly before recovering a bit. We are sticking with this one, and it will eventually turn around.
- Oil sets another record. We are looking for a pullback on this one soon. The impacts of high energy costs on the broader market can sometime seem subtle, but it is not at all. Higher gasoline prices impact consumer spending, trucking which can translate into higher prices for consumers and it goes on and on. High energy costs can slow the economic growth while at the same time accelerate inflation.
- Combine high oil with renewed credit worries, and you know. We have been preaching this for months. We are watching closely. 50% is in the bond, so we have some room to buy more if we get the chance.
- One of our favorite positions, Apple, is releasing a new version of the Mac OS...Leopard. Yet another product to stack on the shelves for Christmas.
- Looks like the Fed was divided on cutting rates (the amount) after reading the minutes. This could telegraph an unwillingness to cut rates further at next meeting.
- Weak Bank results are really going to hit the markets hard. Combine that with the fact that write-offs and write-downs are not complete because deliquincies are still happening, and we still have an equation for more problems.
- We are going to reserve the rest of our slots for average downs if we get the chance, which would be a gift. The only exception will be if any of our open orders fill. We are going to keep them open for a bit just in case.
- Remember, wait for our alert on the average downs. We trigger average downs after a strong trend reversal and many other factors.
- We have not had to say this in a while, but one of our main slogans for new users is: In all of history, no matter how far the markets have fallen, they have done one thing every time. What is that you say? They have gone back up. That is why we look at average downs as a gift for our undervalued stock picks is strong good companies.
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- We love this time in the market! If we are going to get a few sustained pullbacks over the next couple of weeks we should pick up some amazing deals and some great stock picks. Stand by.
- Google buy JUST missed. Man, so close. Maybe tomorrow.
- We are in the area to average down Toyota. When this one comes back it will come back with a vengeance. Until then, we are extremely happy picking up some at bargain prices!
- Now for the bad news. Citigroup. Even though the results beat their guidance, they gave some pretty dire guidance as it relates to the credit markets. Saying things about the credit markets like 'shrank dramatically' and 'may never come back' are pretty bad scenarios. Given the largest financial institution in the world is saying this IS NOT a good thing. Even more reason for our conservative cautious approach. More housing problems are coming, mark my words.
- $86 oil. Yikes. Pile on the negative news and these markets cannot keep going up.
- Greenspan said the credit worries will translate to higher borrowing costs and drag on the economy through Q1 08...that is an optimistic view in our opinion and assume no more credit worries. Could be, I hope for our future stock picks.
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