1. We are still on hold for more stock picks.  We know some of our positions seem attractive at this level, but other than the buy on NYX, we are hold across the board.
2. We know we sold the LEH stock pick for our first loss, ever, but it is down another 13% since then and where is the bottom for brokers in the situation they are in?  I hope all can see the wisdom in that sell now.  We get a lot of joy when selling for 10, 20, 30% gains, but nothing replaces the feeling of selling for a smart loss and then 2 weeks later having it reaffirmed!
3. Stay put, and ride out the storm.  Remember our saying:  "In all of history, when the market has gone down, it has done one thing 100% of the time.  What?  It has gone back up!"
4. Stay tuned, some incredible buys are coming.  Maybe even selling QID at a gain before we ride it back up!

1. SAIA stock pick exited with a small gain.  We understand this was a wild ride.  We think this position could have more upside, but it has higher risk for downside and sideways action for a while.  Too many hedge funds own this stock, and with the deadline for requests for redemptions coming up, the chance for significant selling in this stock is way too high.
2. With only 5 positions out of 20 stock picks in our portfolio, the model portfolio is 25% stock and 75% cash.  With the hedge, 30/70.  This is right where we want to be.  Sub-prime is just starting, and we still believe there is more downside.  Financials still can damage the markets when they start reducing earnings targets.  Hedge funds can sell more.  Bond liquidity is still bad.  Much more.  Smart money is right where we are.  Given the huge returns in our model portfolio over the past 9 months, a few weeks on the sidelines is more than earned.
3. The good news?  The portfolio is outperforming the general markets handily.
4. We are not trying to pick a bottom, we do not believe this is possible.  However, we are managing risk in our entry to new positions.  We have 9 stocks we are watching right now.  We have transitioned our screener over to 'bear' market parameters, but we are not sure that the bulls are gone.  A few more weeks will tell.  Be patient, and be aware of opportunities. 
5. Monitor email closely, we may send new entries intraday if there is a huge 300+ point drop again.  There are a few positions we would love to get on this type of drop.

1. We wanted to see what the fed would do this morning and how the markets would react.  Check back throughout the day I will be updating this stock picks newsletter intraday.
2. This is a good place to sell the SAIA stock pick, since it is a big position with the 4+ average downs we did.  We are positive now, and it is way too concentrated of a position to hold in these markets.  Sell your position when you read this with the limit order suggested on the alerts for a small profit.
3. Update:  3:35 PM EST:  Not much to say.  A pretty muted day so far on the Street.  Liquidity injections are calming things for now.  Hey we have 25 minutes left, so with these markets anything could happen.  You should be out of SAIA now.

Every once in a while we will send out an intraday alert when things happen in the markets that we think are noteworthy.  A few major things are happening as it relates to the TLO portfolio:

1. First, the Fed is injecting some much needed liquidity into the markets.  This allows banks to make short term loans.  They can use that money to do all kinds of things, not the least which is managing panic mongers taking their money out.  Many other things.  This is good for the markets, but not enough.
2. Second, Futures point to a 90% probability the fed will lower rates on September 18, and 100% for October 31.  100% for two lowerings by end of year.  This will be what 'fixes' the market long term.  Until then, we will have high volatility and could still be looking at the 12000s like we predicted a couple of weeks ago.
3. Third, SAIA is up over 10%!!  With our picking away at shares at extremely bargain basement prices the position is near even!  Wow.  Once again, we have done it.  Now, it could go back down, but you can at least see how oversold this stock is if it is up 10% on a day like this.