Will Markets go Sideways Now? -- 8/20/2008

stock picksLet's take a very logical approach to figuring this out:

  • Oil was going lower everyday.  Now Russia and OPEC are pressuring it to go back up.
  • Housing prices still plateauing?  Nope, back to falling. 
  • Financial companies still writing down and writing off, but decelerating?  Nope, back to bad news here. 
  • Companies are still laying people off, but fewer.
  • The dollar is getting stronger in comparison to other currencies, and improving.
  • Inflation is still a problem. 
  • Israel-Iran-USA is providing uncertainty and the stock markets hate that; this has not changed.
  • USA-Europe_Russia is providing major uncertainty.  Will Russia really single handedly bring back the cold war?  About 12 months ago we told all of our subscribers to get out of their Russian holdings at the top because of a picture we saw of Putin being buddies with the super-crazy leader of Iran.  Great call, we just didn't know how great.

What is next?  Did the market bottom in high 10,000s?  We still think so.  Will it re-test?  Maybe to yes.

We have kept all of our subscribers at 50% cash or greater since July of 2007, but we are going to be changing that starting soon.  How are you faring right now?

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Are the bulls staring at the bears again?  Or is this just another temporary rally?  We think it will be a short recovery with a year long sidewise market as thinks stabilize more.  So, we are going after some buying opportunities. 

We have officially been in bear market territory with the market being down over 20% for a while.  1/2 of the 'analysts' are saying we are close to the bottom, the other 1/2 are saying we have more to go.  Must be one those.  Guessers are all that is.  The stock market is the best truth machine out there.

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