| Retail Sales Mixed -- 5/13/2008 |
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Exclusing big ticket items like automobiles, retail sales were actually slightly better than expected. However, you cannot exclude big ticket items in our opinion. This is a reading on consumer behavior which is indicative of recession. What is next? The stock markets will be focused on these type of macro-economic measures until it is convinced we are going to stay in the minor recession we are in now, and not degrade into a major recession. Since the consumer makes up 2/3 of the US GDP, where the consumer goes so does the econony as a whole. In our opinion, the biggest risk to the consumer degrading into major recessionary behaviors is..... OIL...
Texas Tea. Black Gold. We have been saying for almost a year now that the price of oil is going to send the global economy into a major recession from the minor one we have been in for almost 11 months now. We see minor profit taking on oil, and then another major rally. We must get the price of oil down or the consumer is going away, no doubt. It is simple math. The more the consumer has to pay for gasoline, the less they have to pay for other things. This is not even a subconscious behavior. This is simple supply/demand at the consumer level. Higher oil is less cash for other things. The most worrisome. Get The Limit Order for $6.65/month with a 3 month membership. The Limit Order stock picks continue to outperform the market, Register for free and check it out. |
